Many studies have looked at which betting strategies can actually make money. In the NFL, research suggests that betting against divisional rivals (teams in the same division) and going against the majority of bettors—especially when 50-60% of them are backing the same team—can sometimes lead to profit (Shank, 2019; Shank, 2018). In soccer, one study found that using a mathematical strategy called the Fibonacci sequence when betting on draws has worked in several European leagues (Demir et al., 2013). Baseball betting is usually efficient, meaning it’s hard to find profitable strategies, but some research suggests that betting at certain times of the season might improve your chances (Ryan et al., 2012). Hockey (NHL) betting has been shown to have some weaknesses that allow bettors to make money, particularly by betting on underdogs (Woodland & Woodland, 2001).
No matter the sport, using smart betting strategies like the Kelly criterion—which helps manage risk and avoid betting too much—can be useful (Uhrín et al., 2021). But while some studies claim they’ve found ways to make money, others say that most betting markets are very efficient, meaning there aren’t many consistent ways to profit, especially in baseball (Lawson & Ryan, 2024). In the end, making money from betting is extremely difficult, and even strategies that seem to work may stop being profitable as markets adjust.
In soccer, one study found that using a mathematical strategy called the Fibonacci sequence when betting on draws has worked in several European leagues.
Summary of: Demir et al., 2013
Anecdote
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Articles Cited
- “Corey A. Shank (2019): NFL Betting Market Efficiency, Divisional Rivals, and Profitable Strategies, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3385529
- The paper examines inefficiencies in the NFL betting market, finding that games between divisional rivals have a lower chance of the home team covering the spread and a higher chance of going over the total, which can be used to develop profitable betting strategies.”
- “Ender Demir, Hakan Danis, Ugo Rigoni (2013): Is the soccer betting market efficient? A cross-country investigation using the Fibonacci strategy., https://doi.org/10.5750/JGBE.V6I2.580
- The authors find that implementing the Fibonacci betting strategy on draws in 8 European soccer leagues over 4 seasons yields positive returns, indicating that the soccer betting markets are inefficient.”
- “Corey A. Shank (2018): NFL Betting Biases, Profitable Strategies, and the Wisdom of the Crowd, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3289715
- The paper examines various betting biases in the NFL market and shows that a contrarian strategy can be profitable.”
- “Matej Uhrín, Gustav Sourek, O. Hubáček, F. Železný (2021): Optimal sports betting strategies in practice: an experimental review, https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpaa029
- The paper investigates different sports betting investment strategies, including the popular Modern Portfolio Theory and Kelly criterion approaches, as well as various modifications to these strategies aimed at managing the additional risk that arises from the unrealistic mathematical assumptions underlying the original strategies.”
- “R. C. Vergin, M. Scriabin (1978): Winning Strategies for Wagering on National Football League Games, https://doi.org/10.1287/MNSC.24.8.809
- The authors attempted to develop profitable betting strategies for National Football League games by detecting biases in the setting of point spreads, and their analysis of 1969-1974 data suggests that such biases do exist and can be used for profitable wagering despite the normal betting fee.”
- “Robert Lawson, Matt E. Ryan (2024): Do profitable wagering strategies indicate an inefficient market? An investigation into simple wagering strategies in Major League Baseball moneyline markets, https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2024.2364115
- The authors found that the Major League Baseball moneyline betting market is extremely efficient, as only a small percentage of simple wagering strategies were profitable.”
- “L. Woodland, Bill M. Woodland (2001): Market Efficiency and Profitable Wagering in the National Hockey League: Can Bettors Score on Longshots?, https://doi.org/10.2307/1061582
- The National Hockey League betting market is found to be somewhat inefficient, and simple wagering strategies can result in profitable returns, as bettors tend to overbet favorites relative to their observed chance of winning, and the market does not appear to be converging to efficiency.”
- “M. Ryan, Marshall K. Gramm, N. McKinney (2012): Information effects in major league baseball betting markets, https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2010.518951
- The major league baseball betting market is generally efficient, but incorporating the time of year in which bets are placed can generate persistent profitable betting strategies due to increasing difficulties in determining the true favorite and assessing the favorite-underdog relationship throughout the season.”
Insufficient Detail?
At times it is difficult to answer the question as there are not enough relevant published journal articles to relate. It could be that the topic is niche, there’s a significant edge (and researchers prefer not to publish), there is no edge or simply no one has thought to investigate.
