Research on the relative importance of luck and skill in betting highlights the intricate and often paradoxical relationship between these two factors. Studies indicate that both play a role in determining success, with risk-taking behaviors increasing when outcomes are perceived to be luck-dependent, particularly among male bettors (Hogarth & Karelaia, 2008). While skill-based gambling is often associated with socialization motives and planning-oriented behaviors, luck-based gambling tends to correlate with money-driven motives and perceived social risks, suggesting that different types of gamblers may approach betting with distinct psychological frameworks (Gandolfo & Bonis, 2015; Bonis & Gandolfo, 2015).
Interestingly, research suggests that luck exerts a stronger influence on outcomes for higher-skilled groups, which seems counterintuitive. A study on golf performance found that as players become more skilled, the relative impact of luck increases, likely because skill levels converge at the top, making random fluctuations in performance more decisive (Rendleman, 2020). This finding extends to betting, where even well-informed and highly strategic gamblers are still subject to chance, particularly in the short term. The role of luck can be further analyzed through mathematical frameworks, such as relative entropies and betting strategies, which suggest that despite skillful decision-making, luck often dictates long-term results (Bottazzi & Giachini, 2019).
Efforts to quantify the respective contributions of luck and skill have included statistical simulations, such as those used in poker, where fluctuations in player equity over time help distinguish between the two factors (Guo et al., 2019). These findings underscore the complexity of gambling markets, where skill can improve expected returns but does not eliminate the inherent randomness of outcomes. Understanding this interplay is essential for bettors seeking sustainable strategies, as even the most skilled participants cannot fully escape the influence of luck.
The role of luck can be further analyzed through mathematical frameworks, such as relative entropies and betting strategies, which suggest that despite skillful decision-making, luck often dictates long-term results
Summary of: Bottazzi & Giachini 2019
Anecdote
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Articles Cited
- “R. Hogarth, Natalia Karelaia (2008): Skill, Luck, Overconfidence, and Risk Taking, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1374235
- The paper compares experimental market entry decisions where payoffs depend on skill alone versus a combination of skill and luck, finding that people take more risks when luck is involved, especially males, and that there is little overconfidence, which can be explained by differential attitudes toward luck by those with high and low self-assessed skills.”
- “A. Gandolfo, V. D. Bonis (2015): MOTIVATION, PERSONALITY TYPE AND THE CHOICE BETWEEN SKILL AND LUCK GAMBLING PRODUCTS, https://doi.org/10.5750/JGBE.V9I1.891
- The study analyzes differences in gambling motivations between people who prefer skill-based gambling games versus luck-based gambling games, based on a survey of university students in Italy.”
- “Richard J. Rendleman Jr. (2020): The relative roles of skill and luck within 11 different golfer populations, https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2019-0028
- This paper examines the relative roles of skill and luck in determining golf scores across 11 different golfer populations, ranging from professional golfers to amateur groups, using regression to the mean and truncated normal distribution methods.”
- “Richard J. Rendleman Jr. (2020): The relative roles of skill and luck within 11 different golfer populations, https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2019-0028
- This paper examines the relative roles of skill and luck in determining golf scores across 11 different golfer populations, ranging from professional golfers to amateur groups, using regression to the mean and truncated normal distribution methods.”
- “V. D. Bonis, A. Gandolfo (2015): Game of Skill or Game of Luck? Motivations for Gambling, https://doi.org/10.5539/ijms.v7n3p1
- The paper analyzes the differences in gambling motivations between skill and luck gamblers based on a survey of university students in Italy, finding that skill gamblers are more motivated by social interaction and planning, while luck gamblers are more motivated by money and perceive a higher risk of losing social esteem.”
- “G. Bottazzi, Daniele Giachini (2019): Betting, Selection, and Luck: A Long-Run Analysis of Repeated Betting Markets, https://doi.org/10.3390/e21060585
- The paper considers a repeated betting market with two agents who wage on a binary event according to generic betting strategies, and derives new criteria based on the difference of relative entropies to determine the long-run wealth dynamics of the two agents, showing that it is generically possible for the ultimate winner to be decided by luck.”
- “Zhaoyu Guo, Irwin Khuu, Kevin Zhu, J. Rosenthal, F. Schoenberg (2019): Distinguishing luck from skill through statistical simulation: a case study, https://doi.org/10.1080/03610918.2019.1698746
- The authors performed a detailed simulation study of Texas Hold’em poker hands to investigate how to measure the relative contributions of luck versus skill in the game.”
- “- (2020): Some Sports Have All the Luck, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119646068.ch17
- The authors investigate which professional sports leagues have the most skill-based plays versus luck-based outcomes by analyzing game results over a full season.”
Insufficient Detail?
At times it is difficult to answer the question as there are not enough relevant published journal articles to relate. It could be that the topic is niche, there’s a significant edge (and researchers prefer not to publish), there is no edge or simply no one has thought to investigate.
