Research on sports betting profitability and strategies has produced mixed results. Some studies suggest that market inefficiencies exist, allowing for profitable betting strategies, particularly in live betting. For example, an Expert Bayesian Network approach applied to NBA live betting was able to generate profits (Ryan & Alameda-Basora, 2019). In cricket, researchers found that teams sometimes overreact to the first innings, creating a strategy that led to a 20% profit (Norton et al., 2014). Similarly, NFL betting has been shown to have certain biases that bettors can take advantage of (Vergin & Scriabin, 1978; Shank, 2019).
However, other studies suggest that betting markets are generally efficient, meaning that finding long-term profitable strategies is difficult. In Major League Baseball (MLB), research found that only a small percentage of simple betting strategies were actually profitable (Lawson & Ryan, 2024).
Some studies have identified arbitrage opportunities, particularly in European football betting, where price differences between bookmakers can be exploited for guaranteed profits (Vlastakis et al., 2009). Other research has demonstrated that certain strategies, such as taking advantage of mispriced odds in football betting, can lead to consistent profits (Kaunitz et al., 2017). While inefficiencies in betting markets do exist, they are becoming harder to exploit as bookmakers adjust their odds and improve their models. This makes it increasingly difficult for bettors to achieve consistent profits, especially with simple betting strategies.
In cricket, researchers found that teams sometimes overreact to the first innings, creating a strategy that led to a 20% profit
Summary of: Norton Et Al, 2014
Anecdote
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Articles Cited
- “S. Ryan, E. Alameda-Basora (2019): Application of Bayesian Network to Total Points in NBA Games, –
- The authors constructed an Expert Bayesian Network to sequentially update the probability that the total score in an NBA game will exceed the oddsmakers’ set total, and then used this probability to influence their live-betting strategy on the Totals (Over/Under) bet.”
- “Hugh Norton, Stephen Gray, R. Faff (2014): Yes, One-Day International Cricket ‘In-Play’ Trading Strategies Can Be Profitable!, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2465536
- The authors employ a Monte Carlo simulation technique to estimate the conditional probability of victory in ODI cricket matches, and then use this model to test market efficiency in the Betfair ‘in-play’ market, finding evidence of overreaction in the first innings and some evidence of underreaction in the second innings, and documenting several profitable trading strategies.”
- “R. C. Vergin, M. Scriabin (1978): Winning Strategies for Wagering on National Football League Games, https://doi.org/10.1287/MNSC.24.8.809
- The authors attempted to develop profitable betting strategies for National Football League games by detecting biases in the setting of point spreads, and their analysis of 1969-1974 data suggests that such biases do exist and can be used for profitable wagering despite the normal betting fee.”
- “Nikolaos Vlastakis, George Dotsis, Raphael N. Markellos (2009): How Efficient is the European Football Betting Market? Evidence from Arbitrage and Trading Strategies, https://doi.org/10.1002/FOR.1085
- The paper assesses the efficiency of the European football betting market by examining the forecastability of match outcomes and the profitability of various betting strategies.”
- “Robert Lawson, Matt E. Ryan (2024): Do profitable wagering strategies indicate an inefficient market? An investigation into simple wagering strategies in Major League Baseball moneyline markets, https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2024.2364115
- The authors found that the Major League Baseball moneyline betting market is extremely efficient, as only a small percentage of simple wagering strategies were profitable.”
- “Corey A. Shank (2019): NFL Betting Market Efficiency, Divisional Rivals, and Profitable Strategies, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3385529
- The paper examines inefficiencies in the NFL betting market, finding that games between divisional rivals have a lower chance of the home team covering the spread and a higher chance of going over the total, which can be used to develop profitable betting strategies.”
- “Lisandro N. Kaunitz, Shenjun Zhong, Javier Kreiner (2017): Beating the bookies with their own numbers – and how the online sports betting market is rigged, –
- The authors designed a betting strategy that exploits the probability information implicit in the publicly available odds to consistently beat the bookmakers, demonstrating that the football betting market is inefficient.”
- “Corey A. Shank (2018): NFL Betting Biases, Profitable Strategies, and the Wisdom of the Crowd, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3289715
- The paper examines various betting biases in the NFL market and shows that a contrarian strategy can be profitable.”
Insufficient Detail?
At times it is difficult to answer the question as there are not enough relevant published journal articles to relate. It could be that the topic is niche, there’s a significant edge (and researchers prefer not to publish), there is no edge or simply no one has thought to investigate.
