Weather conditions play a pivotal role in shaping both horse racing outcomes and betting behaviors. Factors such as rainfall, temperature, sunshine, and wind can directly influence track conditions, which in turn affect horse performance (Ofori-Sarpong & Annor, 2001). The moisture content and composition of the track surface are critical elements that determine racing conditions, although they do not always correlate with injury patterns, which remain an area of ongoing research (Clanton et al., 1991). Despite the clear influence of weather, studies suggest that bettors tend to undervalue this information when placing wagers, potentially missing out on opportunities to refine betting strategies (Salaga & Howley, 2022). This tendency to overlook weather factors may stem from cognitive biases or an overreliance on more immediately apparent factors, such as jockey skill or horse form.
Furthermore, weather conditions affect the broader betting environment by influencing track surface quality, field size, and race competitiveness, all of which in turn impact betting volume and preferences (Gramm et al., 2007). In terms of market ecology, the way weather information is integrated into betting decisions also depends on the information flows within the market, with some bettors more attuned to such data than others (Sung & Johnson, 2013). Additionally, environmental factors like weather, combined with logistical elements such as journey duration to the racecourse, contribute to the risk of horse falls during races, which poses significant safety concerns for both horses and jockeys (Pinchbeck et al., 2010). As a result, understanding how weather conditions interact with both race outcomes and market behavior is essential for bettors seeking to refine their strategies, as well as for organizers focused on ensuring the safety and welfare of participants.
Despite the clear influence of weather, studies suggest that bettors tend to undervalue this information when placing wagers, potentially missing out on opportunities to refine betting strategies
Summary of: Salaga & Howley 2022
Anecdote
Have a story to share? Write to us at research@bettingresearch.org if you have a related, personal experience you would like to see placed here and share with the community.
Articles Cited
- “E. Ofori-sarpong, J. Annor (2001): Rainfall over Accra, 1901–90, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.2001.tb06535.x
- The paper examines the use of weather variables to predict the “”going”” (track conditions) at Irish racecourses, and suggests ways to further improve the predictive accuracy of this approach.”
- “M. Sung, Johnnie E. V. Johnson (2013): The Influence of Market Ecology on Market Efficiency: Evidence From a Speculative Financial Market, https://doi.org/10.5750/JGBE.V1I3.519
- The paper examines how differences in the “”market ecology”” or information environment of the horserace betting market impact the degree to which bettors can incorporate appropriate information into their probability estimates, and how this in turn affects the efficiency of different segments of the market.”
- “Charles Clanton, Calvin N. Kobluk, R. Robinson, Bradley Gordon (1991): Monitoring surface conditions of a Thoroughbred racetrack., https://doi.org/10.2460/javma.1991.198.04.613
- The study monitored various environmental and surface conditions at a Thoroughbred racetrack, finding that weather did not correlate with horse injuries, moisture content and compaction varied across the track, but friction was not affected by these factors.”
- “Steven Salaga, William P. Howley (2022): The impact of weather on betting outcomes and market behaviour in the NCAA football totals market, https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2022.2146651
- The paper examines the impact of weather information on betting outcomes and market behavior in the NCAA football totals market, finding that the market does not efficiently incorporate weather data into its forecasts and that simple betting strategies using weather data can be profitable.”
- “Marshall K. Gramm, C. N. McKinney, Douglas H. Owens, M. Ryan (2007): What Do Bettors Want? Determinants of Pari-Mutuel Betting Preference, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1536-7150.2007.00523.x
- This paper examines the determinants of pari-mutuel betting preferences at thoroughbred racetracks, finding evidence to support the existence of two types of bettors – risk-averse informed bettors and uninformed bettors.”
- “W. Snyder (1978): Decision-Making with Risk and Uncertainty: The Case of Horse Racing, https://doi.org/10.2307/1421531
- The paper examines how people make decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty, using horse racing betting as an example.”
- “R. Quandt (1986): Betting and Equilibrium, https://doi.org/10.2307/1884650
- Racetrack betting is a simple investment situation where individuals invest money for uncertain returns, and the paper discusses various aspects of this, including the relationship between objective and subjective probabilities of winning, risk-loving behavior among bettors, and the efficiency of the betting market.”
- “Gina Pinchbeck, P. Clegg, C. Proudman, K. Morgan, N. P. French (2010): A prospective cohort study to investigate risk factors for horse falls in UK hurdle and steeplechase racing., https://doi.org/10.2746/0425164044864552
- This study aimed to identify and quantify risk factors for horse falls in National Hunt racing, and to report the frequency of falling and falling-associated fatalities. The key findings were that duration of journey to the racecourse, behavior in the parade ring, weather, age, amount of rainfall, and going were associated with falling in hurdle and/or steeplechase racing, and that falls at fences are significant contributors to equine fatalities during National Hunt racing, with potentially modifiable risk factors including the condition of track surfaces and journey time to the racecourse.”
Insufficient Detail?
At times it is difficult to answer the question as there are not enough relevant published journal articles to relate. It could be that the topic is niche, there’s a significant edge (and researchers prefer not to publish), there is no edge or simply no one has thought to investigate.
