Research on sports betting markets has uncovered several important insights. One major factor affecting team performance is injuries. Teams with more available players generally have a better chance of winning, which means bettors should pay attention to injury reports before placing wagers (Drew et al., 2017).
Bookmakers sometimes fail to fully consider certain game conditions. For example, in the NFL, travel effects can influence performance, but oddsmakers may not adjust their lines enough to account for this (Nichols, 2014). Similarly, in tennis tournaments, the impact of player withdrawals on match outcomes might not be fully reflected in the betting odds (Leitner et al., 2016).
Market inefficiencies can also come from unusual circumstances. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the absence of live audiences affected player performance, creating profitable opportunities for bettors in NBA games (Qureshi & Zaman, 2021). Another well-known issue is the longshot bias, where underdogs are often given worse odds than they realistically deserve. This pattern is especially common in soccer betting (Cortis, 2016).
Another trend is that odds sometimes overreact to a team’s recent performance. Teams that have been playing poorly may be undervalued by the market, creating a chance to profit by betting on them before they recover (Wheatcroft, 2020). Understanding risk factors and statistics is also important for bettors looking to analyze how injuries and other variables impact betting outcomes. Having a solid grasp of these elements can improve decision-making and help bettors spot weaknesses in the market (Hopkins et al., 2007).
Teams with more available players generally have a better chance of winning, which means bettors should pay attention to injury reports before placing wagers
Summary of: Drew et al 2017
Anecdote
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Articles Cited
- “W. Hopkins, S. Marshall, K. Quarrie, P. Hume (2007): Risk Factors and Risk Statistics for Sports Injuries, https://doi.org/10.1097/JSM.0b013e3180592a68
- To introduce and explain various risk statistics and their practical application to evaluating studies of sports injuries.”
- “Mark W. Nichols (2014): The Impact of Visiting Team Travel on Game Outcome and Biases in NFL Betting Markets, https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002512440580
- The paper examines the impact of visiting team travel on game outcome and whether betting markets fully account for this travel effect in the National Football League (NFL) from 1981-2004.”
- “C. Leitner, A. Zeileis, K. Hornik (2016): Is Federer Stronger in a Tournament Without Nadal? An Evaluation of Odds and Seedings for Wimbledon 2009, https://doi.org/10.17713/AJS.V38I4.280
- The paper analyzes the effects of Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal from Wimbledon 2009 on the expected winning probabilities of the other top players, especially Roger Federer, as estimated by bookmakers.”
- “Vasiliki Makropoulou, Raphael N. Markellos (2011): Optimal Price Setting in Fixed‐Odds Betting Markets Under Information Uncertainty, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.2011.00557.x
- The paper develops a model of optimal pricing for fixed-odds betting markets that accounts for information uncertainty, and uses this model to explain the favorite-longshot bias observed in these markets.”
- “K. Qureshi, Tauhid Zaman (2021): The Impact of COVID-19 on Sports Betting Markets, –
- The COVID-19 pandemic led to significant inefficiencies in the moneyline betting markets for the National Basketball Association (NBA), allowing for substantial profits by betting on underdog teams, which is hypothesized to be due to the absence of live audiences during NBA games.”
- “M. Drew, Benjamin P Raysmith, P. Charlton (2017): Injuries impair the chance of successful performance by sportspeople: a systematic review, https://doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2016-096731
- Injuries have a detrimental impact on athletic success, and increased player availability and injury prevention are important for maximizing performance.”
- “Dominic Cortis (2016): Betting Markets: Defining odds restrictions, exploring market inefficiencies and measuring bookmaker solvency, –
- The paper by Dominic Cortis (2016) provides mathematical models and analyses related to betting markets, including defining odds restrictions, exploring market inefficiencies, and measuring bookmaker solvency.”
- “E. Wheatcroft (2020): Profiting from overreaction in soccer betting odds, https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2019-0009
- The paper demonstrates the existence of a bias in soccer betting odds where teams that have performed above expectations in recent matches tend to be assigned poorer value odds than teams that have performed below expectations, and this bias can be exploited to generate a sustained and robust profit.”
Insufficient Detail?
At times it is difficult to answer the question as there are not enough relevant published journal articles to relate. It could be that the topic is niche, there’s a significant edge (and researchers prefer not to publish), there is no edge or simply no one has thought to investigate.
