Research on sports betting markets presents mixed findings regarding the consistent profitability of arbitrage opportunities. Several studies have identified conditions where arbitrage betting can generate risk-free profits, particularly in inter-market betting scenarios where odds discrepancies arise across different bookmakers (Franck et al., 2009; Vlastakis et al., 2009; Burkey, 2005). However, while these opportunities theoretically allow bettors to secure guaranteed returns, their practical exploitation is often constrained by bookmaker management practices. Many bookmakers implement measures to detect and restrict informed bettors who frequently engage in arbitrage betting, limiting their ability to place large wagers or even closing their accounts altogether (Grant et al., 2018).
Despite these restrictions, some research suggests that betting strategies leveraging odds biases or predictive models can produce positive returns, challenging the notion of perfectly efficient betting markets (Constantinou & Fenton, 2013; Vlastakis et al., 2006). The presence of professional bettors who specialize in odds arbitrage may contribute to market equilibrium by reducing pricing inefficiencies, especially in high-volume markets where rapid odds adjustments occur (Adams, 2002). This suggests that while arbitrage can influence market efficiency, it does not necessarily guarantee profitability for individual bettors.
Moreover, empirical studies indicate that arbitrage opportunities, while present, tend to be rare and short-lived due to increasing market sophistication and real-time odds adjustments by bookmakers (Burkey, 2005). Exploiting these opportunities successfully requires extensive preparation, knowledge, and sufficient capital to absorb potential transaction costs and liquidity constraints (Emiliano, 2013). Overall, while sports betting markets may not always be perfectly efficient, consistently profiting from arbitrage remains a challenge due to bookmaker interventions, market corrections, and the logistical demands of executing arbitrage bets effectively.
Many bookmakers implement measures to detect and restrict informed bettors who frequently engage in arbitrage betting, limiting their ability to place large wagers or even closing their accounts altogether
Summary of: Grant et al, 2018
Anecdote
Have a story to share? Write to us at research@bettingresearch.org if you have a related, personal experience you would like to see placed here and share with the community.
Articles Cited
- “C. Emiliano (2013): Betting Markets: Opportunities For Many?, –
- The paper discusses the opportunities for making risk-free profits from sports arbitrage betting and bonuses offered by bookmakers, and how cooperation among bettors can influence these opportunities.”
- “A. Constantinou, N. Fenton (2013): Profiting from arbitrage and odds biases of the European football gambling market, https://doi.org/10.5750/JGBE.V7I2.630
- The paper examines the European football gambling market over a 7-year period and finds that there are consistent odds biases and numerous arbitrage opportunities, indicating that the market is not efficient as commonly believed.”
- “Andrew R. Grant, Anastasios Oikonomidis, A. Bruce, Johnnie E. V. Johnson (2018): New entry, strategic diversity and efficiency in soccer betting markets: the creation and suppression of arbitrage opportunities, https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2018.1443148
- The paper identifies two types of bookmakers in soccer betting markets – “”position-takers”” who restrict informed bettors and “”book-balancers”” who actively manage their odds, and finds that the practices of position-takers prevent arbitrage opportunities from being exploited in practice, even though the authors identify 545 such opportunities.”
- “Nikolaos Vlastakis, George Dotsis, N. Raphael, Markellos (2006): Beating the Odds: Arbitrage and Wining Strategies in the Football Betting Market, –
- The authors examine the potential for generating positive returns from wagering on football matches by employing arbitrage and a simple betting strategy based on a logit regression forecasting model.”
- “Brian R. Adams (2002): Professional Bettors, Odds-Arbitrage Competition, and Betting Market Equilibrium, https://doi.org/10.1142/S021759080200033X
- The paper presents a competition-based model of betting behavior that explains how the presence of professional bettors engaging in odds arbitrage leads to the final track odds converging to the horses’ true win probabilities when there is a high volume of betting.”
- “E. Franck, E. Verbeek, Stephan Nüesch (2009): Inter-market Arbitrage in Sports Betting, –
- The paper examines inter-market arbitrage opportunities in sports betting, finding 1,450 cases where combining bets at the bookmaker and exchange market yields a guaranteed positive return, which emerges from different levels of informational efficiency between the two markets.”
- “Nikolaos Vlastakis, George Dotsis, Raphael N. Markellos (2009): How Efficient is the European Football Betting Market? Evidence from Arbitrage and Trading Strategies, https://doi.org/10.1002/FOR.1085
- The paper assesses the efficiency of the European football betting market by examining the forecastability of match outcomes and the profitability of various betting strategies.”
- “Mark L. Burkey (2005): On “”Arbitage”” and Market Efficiency: An Examination of NFL Wagering, –
- The paper examines the circumstances under which taking advantage of differences between contracts offered in different regional gambling markets, which the author loosely defines as “”arbitrage,”” can be a consistently profitable strategy in the NFL wagering market.”
Insufficient Detail?
At times it is difficult to answer the question as there are not enough relevant published journal articles to relate. It could be that the topic is niche, there’s a significant edge (and researchers prefer not to publish), there is no edge or simply no one has thought to investigate.
