Research suggests that tracking changes in betting lines can help identify valuable betting opportunities. Studies show that the final betting lines, known as closing lines, are usually more accurate than the initial lines (opening lines), as they reflect updated information (Gandar et al., 2000; Kang & Salaga, 2024). This indicates that when betting lines move, it often means new information has come to light.
In different sports, such as baseball (Paul & Weinbach, 2008), basketball (Gandar et al., 1998), and college football (Dare et al., 2005), research has found that certain informed bettors influence these line movements. These bettors are thought to have access to private information that isn’t available to the public, giving them an edge (Dare et al., 2005). For less popular markets, like certain college basketball games, line movements may reflect genuine information rather than random fluctuations or “noise” (Krieger & Fodor, 2012).
While monitoring line movements can help improve betting accuracy, it’s not always easy to profit from this information. The betting market is efficient, and transaction costs (like fees or commissions) can reduce the potential for consistent profits (Moskowitz, 2015; Paul & Weinbach, 2004). However, for bettors who can spot these movements and understand the information behind them, there may still be opportunities to gain an edge.
Studies show that the final betting lines, known as closing lines, are usually more accurate than the initial lines (opening lines), as they reflect updated information
Summary of: Gander et al, 2000; Kang & Salaga, 2024
Anecdote
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Articles Cited
- “R. Paul, A. Weinbach (2008): Line Movements and Market Timing in the Baseball Gambling Market, https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002507310435
- This paper analyzes betting strategies based on line movements in Major League Baseball and tests for evidence of informed bettors in two different sportsbook markets.”
- “W. Dare, J. Gandar, Richard A. Zuber *, Robert M. Pavlik (2005): In search of the source of informed trader information in the college football betting market, https://doi.org/10.1080/0960310042000306961
- The paper examines the sources of information used by informed bettors in the college football betting market, finding that the unexplained movements in betting lines are most important in predicting final game outcomes, indicating that informed bettors are using private information not available in publicly disseminated sources.”
- “Byungju Kang, Steven Salaga (2024): The Impact of Information Release on Line Accuracy and Line Movement: Evidence from the NCAA Basketball Betting Market, –
- The paper examines how the release of information through standard game play affects line accuracy and line movement in NCAA basketball betting markets.”
- “T. Moskowitz (2015): Asset Pricing and Sports Betting, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2635517
- The paper uses sports betting markets to test behavioral theories of asset pricing anomalies, finding evidence of momentum and value effects that are consistent with delayed overreaction, and showing that these effects also predict returns in financial markets, though they are not large enough to be profitably arbitraged.”
- “J. Gandar, Richard A. Zuber, W. Dare (2000): The Search for Informed Traders in the Totals Betting Market for National Basketball Association Games, https://doi.org/10.1177/152700250000100205
- The paper examines the betting market for total points scored in NBA games and finds that closing totals lines are more accurate forecasts than opening lines, and that line changes move the lines in the correct direction and magnitude to eliminate biases in opening lines, causing prices to more accurately reflect fundamental values.”
- “Kevin Krieger, Andy Fodor (2012): Price Movements and the Prevalence of Informed Traders: The Case of Line Movement in College Basketball, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1987876
- The paper examines whether large price movements in markets with a relatively more informed clientele are more indicative of information realization, and finds that line movements in college basketball games with less prominent teams are more likely to be the result of information realization.”
- “J. Gandar, W. Dare, Craig R. Brown, Richard A. Zuber (1998): Informed Traders and Price Variations in the Betting Market for Professional Basketball Games, https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.155346
- The paper examines changes in betting lines from the opening to the closing of the point spread betting market on National Basketball Association games to look for evidence of informed trader betting.”
- “R. Paul, A. Weinbach (2004): “Testing Market Efficiency in the Major League Baseball Over-Under Betting Market”, https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002503260561
- The authors argue that the data used in a previous study on the efficiency of the Major League Baseball over-under betting market was incomplete, as the totals (over-unders) in baseball are posted with odds adjustments unlike in other sports.”
Insufficient Detail?
At times it is difficult to answer the question as there are not enough relevant published journal articles to relate. It could be that the topic is niche, there’s a significant edge (and researchers prefer not to publish), there is no edge or simply no one has thought to investigate.
