Weather conditions play a major role in betting outcomes and gambling behavior across different sports and even lottery markets. Studies show that factors like air density, temperature, wind, and precipitation can impact scoring in baseball and football. However, bettors often fail to fully consider these effects when placing wagers (Paul et al., 2014; Borghesi, 2007; Salaga & Howley, 2022).
In football, higher temperatures can give an advantage to teams used to playing in hot climates when they face teams from cooler regions. This is because players who are more accustomed to extreme heat may perform better in those conditions (Brocherie et al., 2015).
Weather doesn’t just affect sports—it also influences gambling behavior in other areas. Research has found that people are more likely to buy lottery tickets on unexpectedly sunny days, especially if the weather had been cloudy or bad in the days before (Otto et al., 2016; Fu et al., 2021).
Interestingly, the effect of weather on decision-making extends beyond gambling. Studies show that rain and snow can lower voter turnout in elections, which may give an advantage to certain political parties depending on who is less likely to vote in bad weather (Gomez et al., 2007).
In cricket, weather conditions can disrupt games, affecting championship results. Additionally, the outcome of the coin toss, combined with weather conditions, can sometimes have a big impact on match results (Forrest & Dorsey, 2008). Overall, these findings show that weather plays a significant role in both sports betting and broader decision-making. Bettors who pay closer attention to weather-related factors may gain an edge over those who overlook them.
Higher temperatures can give an advantage to teams used to playing in hot climates when they face teams from cooler regions. This is because players who are more accustomed to extreme heat may perform better in those conditions
Summary of: Brocherie et al, 2015
Anecdote
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Articles Cited
- “Steven Salaga, William P. Howley (2022): The impact of weather on betting outcomes and market behaviour in the NCAA football totals market, https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2022.2146651
- The paper examines the impact of weather information on betting outcomes and market behavior in the NCAA football totals market, finding that the market does not efficiently incorporate weather data into its forecasts and that simple betting strategies using weather data can be profitable.”
- “Richard Borghesi (2007): Weather biases in the NFL totals market, https://doi.org/10.1080/09603100701335432
- The paper examines the predictability of outcomes in the NFL totals betting market, finding that weather conditions affect scoring but the market does not fully account for this, and presents a betting strategy that can exploit this to generate above-average profits.”
- “A. R. Otto, S. Fleming, S. Fleming, P. Glimcher, P. Glimcher (2016): Unexpected but Incidental Positive Outcomes Predict Real-World Gambling, https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797615618366
- Unexpected but incidental positive outcomes, such as local sports teams performing better than expected or sunny days following a streak of cloudy days, predict increased real-world gambling behavior among residents of New York City.”
- “F. Brocherie, O. Girard, A. Farooq, G. Millet (2015): Influence of weather, rank, and home advantage on football outcomes in the Gulf region., https://doi.org/10.1249/MSS.0000000000000408
- The study found that in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, home advantage and higher temperatures increase the likelihood of favorable outcomes and higher goal differences for GCC teams, especially when playing against non-GCC opponents, but the advantage of higher temperatures is reduced when playing against stronger opponents.”
- “D. Forrest, R. Dorsey (2008): Effect of toss and weather on County Cricket Championship outcomes, https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410701287271
- The paper examines the effects of weather disruption and luck in winning the toss on the outcomes of the County Cricket Championship in England, using regression analysis to quantify these effects and produce revised league tables that account for these factors, and provides policy recommendations on how to reduce the influence of weather and toss luck in future seasons.”
- “R. Paul, A. Weinbach, Chris Weinbach (2014): The Impact of Atmospheric Conditions on the Baseball Totals Market, –
- Air density has an inverse relationship with total runs scored in Major League Baseball games.”
- “Hin-Ngai Fu, Eva Monson, A. R. Otto (2021): The Relationship Between Unexpected Outcomes and Lottery Gambling Rates in a Large Canadian Metropolitan Area, https://doi.org/10.29173/CGS28
- The study examined whether unexpected positive outcomes in the local environment, such as unexpectedly sunny days or wins by local sports teams, predict increased rates of fixed-prize lottery gambling in a large Canadian metropolitan area.”
- “Brad T. Gomez, Thomas G. Hansford, George A. Krause (2007): The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00565.x
- The paper examines the effect of weather on voter turnout and voting behavior in U.S. presidential elections, finding that rain and snow significantly reduce voter turnout and benefit the Republican party’s vote share.”
Insufficient Detail?
At times it is difficult to answer the question as there are not enough relevant published journal articles to relate. It could be that the topic is niche, there’s a significant edge (and researchers prefer not to publish), there is no edge or simply no one has thought to investigate.
