Research on jockey and trainer statistics in betting markets provides important insights into the factors shaping market dynamics and the role of various biases. One persistent feature in these markets is the favorite-longshot bias, where bettors tend to underbet favorites and overbet longshots, a phenomenon observed across numerous studies (Williams & Paton, 1997; Asch et al., 1984). This bias generally diminishes in larger betting pools or races with more horses, as the increased volume helps to correct for mispricing. However, the bias tends to increase in higher-quality fields and maiden races, where bettors may have less information or experience to assess the true probabilities of outcomes (Gramm & Owens, 2005).
In terms of performance factors, jockey skill plays a crucial role in influencing racing times, with different jockeys performing better across various race distances and track types (Oki et al., 1995). Bettors often overestimate the abilities of female jockeys, particularly in non-stakes races, highlighting the influence of gender biases on betting behavior (Binder & Grimes, 2021). Market efficiency is closely tied to betting volume, with larger volumes helping to reduce inefficiencies (Busche & Walls, 2000; Gramm & Rhodes College, 2005), suggesting that higher decision costs can lead to more accurate pricing as more bettors contribute to the market. Despite the challenges in devising profitable strategies for win betting, there may still be opportunities in place and show betting markets, where the influence of the favorite-longshot bias is less pronounced (Asch et al., 1984). Overall, these studies underscore the complexity of the betting market, demonstrating how factors like bias, information availability, and market volume interact to shape betting outcomes.
Bettors often overestimate the abilities of female jockeys, particularly in non-stakes races, highlighting the influence of gender biases on betting behavior
Summary of: Binder & Grimes 2021
Anecdote
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Articles Cited
- “A. D. Binder, P. Grimes (2021): Defying the odds: horseplayers and female jockeys, https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2021.1947469
- The study finds that while a jockey’s sex has no significant impact on race outcomes, horseplayers assign a higher probability of winning to female jockeys, indicating an inefficiency in the pari-mutuel betting market with respect to a jockey’s sex.”
- “R. Quandt (1986): Betting and Equilibrium, https://doi.org/10.2307/1884650
- Racetrack betting is a simple investment situation where individuals invest money for uncertain returns, and the paper discusses various aspects of this, including the relationship between objective and subjective probabilities of winning, risk-loving behavior among bettors, and the efficiency of the betting market.”
- “H. Oki, Y. Sasaki, C. Y. Lin, R. Willham (1995): Influence of jockeys on racing time in Thoroughbred horses, https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1439-0388.1995.TB00555.X
- The effects of race, age, jockey, and weight carried on racing time in Japanese Thoroughbred horses were examined using a mixed model analysis.”
- “Marshall K. Gramm, Rhodes College (2005): BETTING MARKET EFFICIENCY AT PREMIERE RACETRACKS, –
- This paper empirically analyzes the favorite-longshot bias in betting markets at the two largest U.S. racetracks, Saratoga and Del Mar, finding that while inefficiencies exist, they are reduced as betting volume increases.”
- “Marshall Gramm *, Douglas H. Owens (2005): Determinants of betting market efficiency, https://doi.org/10.1080/1350485042000314352
- This paper examines various factors that influence the efficiency of betting markets in parimutuel horse racing, finding that the standard favorite-longshot bias is affected by factors such as the size of the betting pool, the number of horses in the race, the quality of the field, and whether the race is on grass.”
- “L. Williams, D. Paton (1997): Why is There a Favourite-Longshot Bias in British Racetrack Betting Markets, https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00147
- The paper examines the reasons for the tendency of favorites to be under-bet and longshots to be over-bet in recent British racetrack betting markets, and proposes new empirical tests to identify the influence of insider trading on this “”favorite-longshot bias””.”
- “K. Busche, W. Walls (2000): DECISION COSTS AND BETTING MARKET EFFICIENCY, https://doi.org/10.1177/104346300012004006
- The paper examines the relationship between decision costs and market efficiency in racetrack betting markets, finding that metrics of non-optimizing behavior are inversely related to the volume of betting.”
- “P. Asch, B. Malkiel, R. Quandt (1984): Market Efficiency in Racetrack Betting, https://doi.org/10.1086/296257
- The paper examines the efficiency of the racetrack betting market and whether profitable betting strategies can be devised based on observed betting patterns, finding that while such strategies may exist, they may not be exploitable on a substantial scale, and that the betting market does not necessarily exhibit irrational behavior.”
Insufficient Detail?
At times it is difficult to answer the question as there are not enough relevant published journal articles to relate. It could be that the topic is niche, there’s a significant edge (and researchers prefer not to publish), there is no edge or simply no one has thought to investigate.
